Feed the Fed

Alright, it’s been way too long since I brewed something… So... Let’s get to work.

The Context:

October Jobs Report.  It seems that companies have added about 271,000 jobs in October. This sudden surge in the number of jobs added has been the fastest rate change yet and as an effect has sent the unemployment rate to 5% which is the lowest level since April 2008.

Ok, what does that mean?

Well, according to Economics, inflation rises as unemployment goes down. I know sounds strange at first because we are used to associating negatives with negatives… but Economics thinks otherwise.. for every good, there is bad. Hence, as more and more people get employed, they have money to spend, and as their spending ability increases, so does the demand for things and hence price rise or inflation. Tada!

All right ok we understood that employment increases inflation, what’s next?

Coming to that; USA’s central bank rate has been practically 0% for almost a decade now... 8-8.5 years actually. So now they want to increase that. Now maybe you’re thinking, wait increase bank rate or as its popularly called Fed rate in USA, wouldn't it increase the cost of loans? That would make it harder for people to get their hands on more money, that’s bad, why does USA want to do that??

Weeeelllll…. Inflation in USA has also come to about 0% and now that there’s a sudden drop in unemployment, this inflation will go up and they don’t want that to happen. Simple right? Wrong! Nothing is ever simple!

 Think about it, if inflation goes from 0 to 0.5 or even 1% what’s the big deal? Growth and inflation are directly proportional, so if inflation rises (up to a certain extent, not like Zimbabwe) it means somewhere you are making growth. So the story of wanting to keep inflation under check is bogus.

Wow, ok boss, so what does all this mean then? Why do they really want to increase the fed rate?

I’ll tell you… because they want to look good.

For a stable economy, the Bank rate needs to be respectable, well at least not 0. Japan’s central bank rate has been at zero for almost 15 years, and everyone knows Japan is a saturated economy. They don’t want the same to happen to USA.

Alright… We get it now... so they want to give the Fed rate a hike because they want to look good and look like they made a recovery from the 2008-09 crash. But if this make believe stunt is what they want to do, then why didn’t they do this earlier?

Good question. Frankly, I believe they are doing this because of the presidential elections. However, this post is about a conspiracy theory. Now, where’s the theory??

The Theory

We know what the context is, how Recession, Recovery, Fed Rate, Inflation, Growth and Unemployment are related to each other. And we also know that unless Obama and his govt. show some proof of recovery, it will be really hard to get a third term for the Democrats. So, there’s but one option to show this for sure, increase the fed rate.

This might choke cash flow in the system but! And I mean a serious But! This fed cut is not to choke or pour money into the common man of USA, but it is to show the outsiders that USA is on track for recovery. We must note that people are really wry of the situation. Japan is in a recession, China is looking unstable, and India is still volatile. Everyone else is anyway insignificant. So investors will put their money into USA.

But sir, what about the employment? The govt. can’t simply cook it up, how did nearly 200 thousand new jobs come up within a month??

Ask yourself that question again! How did nearly 200 thousand jobs come up within a month?? Come on!!

I looked it up; the October jobs report a little and I found and I quote

“White-collar businesses added 78,000 profession jobs. Health care added 45,000 positions. Retailers took on 44,000 new workers, and restaurants hired 42,000 people.”

I’m not chasing after everyone, but I got curious at the restaurants and so did a little more digging. About three companies did 80% of this 42000. And surprisingly, these three are Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and KFC. All three belong to the same parent organization of Yum Brands, Inc.

Now about this Yum Brands, Inc.

Yum Brands stock tanked 11% in October. They said it’s because the company didn’t meet the analyst's expected quarterly revenue... seriously? 11% because it missed “analyst estimates”?? Ok I'll believe even that… But listen… The quarterly revenue actually grew by 2.2% and increased the "adjusted earnings" by 14%.

Now the stock, even after recovery is at 5% below last year’s price, but the earnings are high and they just hired 42000 people!!

Here’s where I come in... US wanted to hike the fed rate so bad... But they couldn’t just do it.. Neither could they leave it at 0 and be another Japan... sooo.. They called some of the big guys... like Yum and a few others… and said, look guys, you need to hire more people.

We just saw, that the sales revenue of Yum isn’t that great, the stocks tanked 11% but still its profits are awesome. How?? Think! Universities and Hospitals are known all too well for Govt. indulgence... Sooo… I’m just thinking… somehow someone made a big donation or an “adjustment” leading to a growth in numbers, then the hiring boom and hence creating a clean, unsuspecting and natual green signal for the fed rate hike.

But the question is … will you buy this natural green signal??? Is it all that natural in the first place? Will you invest in USA after knowing this??? Or is Obama really looking for investment in America and the American people or is it all just to get money for a short term till the elections are over??

AAP Bhi Aadmi Ho

Arvind Kejriwal was sworn in as the 7^th Chief Minister of Delhi about 15 days ago. It was a big day in the politics and democracy of India. I wasn’t really happy about the Aam Aadmi Party taking Congress support to form the government in Delhi. The day when the news broke that AAP will form the government in Delhi  with Congress aid, I made a sad facebook post. Here’s the pic:

Yeah, call me a sadist, and heres a comment by one of my high school teachers

And another friend of mine said:

Ofcouse I only had this to say:

And then the status died away.. and 5 days later Arvind Kejriwal was sworn in as the CM and he made quite a decent speech that day. 

I made a status:

I realized that I was missing something and this congress alliance may not prove that damaging and AAP would still be able to play a dominating role and provide the people of Delhi some good governance.

The days that followed saw a lot of changes and decisions like the transfer of DJB higher management, 700 liters of free water per day and maybe a few more that I don’t remember. But all the while and media, other political parties and sympathizers and supporters of the NaMo Movement started posting pictures, excerpts and quotes of how Kejriwal and the AAP were switching sides, changing tunes etc etc.. the 3 biggest things that the people have found hardest to forget and forgive are:

1.       Kejriwal won’t fight an election – He contested and became CM

2.       Kejriwal won’t take VIP security or government facilities (car, house etc) – Well he did that

And the worst

3.       Kejriwal swore on his children that there would be no support taken from BJP or Congress – Well, we all know what happened.

Now, ofcourse I’m writing this post to well somewhat justify his statements, now these three have not risen from different sources. The one reason is, he’s green, that’s it.

Being a.. well talkative person I know that sometimes you go overboard, get carried away and say something of paramount proportion when you don’t know the complete picture. Haven’t we all seen people who are ‘confidently wrong’? That’s what happened here, it’s practically impossible to have a CM walking the streets without security. I’m not talking about the CM, the people would swarm the place and hurt one another.. its so with any celebrity and he or any celebrity has no control over it.. so this was an innocent ‘confidently wrong’ statement. How can he say something and we take his word for something that isn’t in his control?

Speaking of the swearing on children part, the same goes here, he was ‘confidently wrong’ because of his innocence, as I said, he’s still a little green, now what do we do of an innocent first timer? Do we show some consideration or we scrutinize and criticize his every move? Expect him to be perfect from day 1? That’s just too much expectation from us, the media and other politicians. Given time, maybe he’ll learn his limitations and learn that every word is counted.

To be a little neutral here, I really am concerned about the ‘370 pages of evidence against Shiela Dixit’ statement. Ofcouse, thinking realistically, there’s no such thing as ‘unconditional’ support. Lets leave it as that.

Finally, why did he enter politics, contest and become CM? well, We must think of why AAP was formed in the first place, there was no option left, right? No Lok Pal Bill would be passed with all the Anshans and people were simple getting bored and eventually fizz out. 

This was a right decision, but sadly, we have a perception that nothing can be changed or that people who get down in the pit to clean also end up smelling like shit.. or people have no hopes of ever having a clean political system. Maybe.. but the one line I remember from The Shawshank Redumption is “No one can ever take away hope” So I’m gonna hope, hope that change is possible, change will happen and I will do my part. (by making blogs and fb posts? Sure why not)

A Crowd In Hand

The last time I experienced Delhi winter I thought it was overrated and the 16 of Bangalore was colder than the 4 of Delhi. I accounted this to the wind speed and altitude difference. This time however the winter already seems cold. Maybe because I’ve been living in Delhi for a little over 4 months and pretty much accustomed to the windless oven. Now I see people leaving for home earlier, shops shutting down earlier, the sun shying away faster and a dead silence descending over the night.

  It was the silence of the cold Friday night. I heard a railway horn blow at a distance. The line was about 1200 – 1500 meters away and would’ve been inaudible if it were not winter. It was in this silence that kept me awake. I finally decided to watch the movie Lucia.

 

I think it was August 2013, when I suddenly started seeing all these posts from on FB about how awesome Lucia is and surprisingly, I BMS-ed  it and what do you know! A PVR in one of the malls of Gurgoan was actually showing Lucia. I didn’t have a lot of company to go watch it, I had found zero Kannadigas and my friends of Delhi weren’t really interested. This wouldn’t have happened if you’re in Bangalore. I’ve been dragged and I’ve dragged my friends to movies of the languages we didn’t follow, but it was fun and it happens often in Bangalore.  

Anyway this post isn’t about language. It’s about the concept of crowd funding. The introduction credits of Lucia movie said that it’s the first CrowdFunded Kannada movie. I googled a little later and found a news result dated Nov 12, 2013. It said the first Crowd Funded Malayalam movie with a Tamil/Malayalam cast and a Bengali Director would release soon, cool so Kannada is ahead (yay :P) More googling lead to a Reuterspost about the movie. It says the story writer had made a blog post where he said that he had tried to source the movie but had failed for 3 years. Suddenly out of the blue he got 200,000 rupees into his bank account from a lady in UK. More funding from random strangers followed and that’s when they decided to make a movie out of funds from the crowd. 

This idea is ingenious! Kannada film industry of the ‘Sandalwood’ is known for its low budget or its Tamil/Telugu adaptations; Lucia was so big and radical that people said it brought a paradigm shift. Though it was still a low budget movie, it was very well received. The plot of the movie itself is so delicate and complex. The actors did good and the songs were pretty good too. The movie all in all was good, it was also released in Pakistan; the Tribune even put a review of Lucia. Sadly I still don’t think I would find people who would want to try the movie. (it was released with subtitles ofcourse)

Last year I had authored a white paper dealing crowdsourcing for software testing and since then I had started to appreciate the benefits of using a crowd. I read a bit more about crowd funding and the more I read the more I was interested, this idea is already catching up, crowd funded movies were already famous in the west. The next result said Crowd Funded travelling; a site called Trevolta said it would sponsor trips! The idea is simple; travelers post their travel plans and the company tries to sponsor it, the sponsors may be from simply inspired and passionate travelers or marketers sponsoring for marketing use. Whatever the case, you get to go on a trip free of cost! Why wouldn’t it work?? The idea is relatively new and the site has very less right now, but you can check out their FB page just in case (I know free publicity right? They better fund one of my trips :P :D )

I was thinking hard about how to make use of this idea, maybe I could use CrowdFunding to raise capital for my entrepreneurial ideas too… and that’s when it hit me that this is what we do in India! A Ganesh mela or a Durga Puja pandal or holika dahan all happen with crowdfunding! We call it chanda and now we’re giving it a fancy name, come to think of it, it doesn’t seem so radical or big or new idea at all! And today, we have so much money; Banks, Investors and VC’s and ready to give you all the money if you have an idea, and if not these guys then you can just get money from the crowd! What we need is planning, transparency and proper IT integration and we could use CrowdFunding for anything! So... Go! 

Made in India, Banned in China

I woke up early to wish my sister on her birthday. The day also brought about one of those days when I’m early to office. Well, on time actually. The Wednesday started early, and there were few mails that caught my interest; except the one from a colleague from the China office.  The Chinese Had visited India a few days ago and I had actually managed to get close enough to be able to ask them to open my blog after they got back to China. I had always wanted page views from China. Ever since the rise of India and China cliché, I had my eyes set on China and well, getting Chinese eyes on my blog was also important.

Hi H,

Bad news for you, your blog is also banned in China. :(

Regards,

SY

  The first reaction was fear. Have I don’t something wrong? Have I written something bad? Am I in trouble? I was scared. But I hadn’t written anything about China at all. In the Anty Life post, I remember saying “But isn’t China doing good?” and that was the only time I had ever used the word! Why would you ban me? I recently wrote a post onPakistan, but that was also promoting Peace. Maybe the Chinese don’t want India and Pakistan to be in peace :P Thinking more, I remembered the Rich andResponsible Posts, where I had again mentioned China, but it was a post against America, or rather against Obama, did the Chinese like Obama? Everyone knows China has a lot of Forex and export business with USA, so maybe they don’t want their people to see me talk bad about USA. 

 

After the first few minutes of fear passed, I felt happy and even started to feel a little proud. I had caught the eyes of the Chinese after all. My posts got to China! Wow that sounds so awesome! I’m actually a banned author! People would use proxy servers! search for me on Google and Twitter! And wait for me to make posts on other underground sites and blogs! I’m a banned author! So exhilarating! 

Then I suddenly remembered there was no twitter in China! SY and AC had told us a little about China, there was no facebook, no twitter, no self-owned homes and no one cared if your house came in between a road widening project. It goes down! It takes a hundred years to take down a stray temple in the center of the road in India, leave alone houses! Why temple? even a cud chewing cow is stronger than a honking Million Rupee SUV!

‘Do you have strikes in China?’ I asked AC over some tea on their last day in India. 

He said, ‘oh no no!’

‘There are never strikes in China. You can do Strike if you want, but you will be thrown in prison, maybe forever.’

The four of us had a hearty laugh, but fell silent. All of us thinking why we laughed. 

This memory of banning, censoring and silencing came back when I was told I was banned in China. So like any other smart person, I Googled:

Why is my blog banned in China?

There were many results and a link to Wikipedia read, list of sites blocked in China. I hit it and saw some really good sites, facebook, twitter, youtube, Pikasa were all blocked in China! The number 13 on the list shot down my snout and showed me why my Blog is banned. It’s not me… it’s the whole of Blogspot!